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| Bottom Fishing since April 2019.... |
Blogs 202101 Decmeber 2021Markets:I tried not to panic when the news around Omicron hit and actually added to a few positions on the sell off.Portfolio highlights:BT. -BT is having a nice little bounce with more bid rumours beginning to circulate. Drool!! RIV - Nice pop this month. I re-valued this on and I think it's prospects look good. Target 400p. FRES - Fresnillo continues to form a classic upward trend and I've no reason to doubt it at the moment. Buys:New Positions:BOO - @ 197p Not particulary cheap yet but generates a good return on assests and has a strong cash position. Profit forcasts look very good too and there is obvious support down around the 150 level. Why not wait till 150 then? Well, I've seen plenty of good companines share price bounce so quickly you never reach the entry target. I'm happy to take an initial position, build around a longer term low and sell in a few years. The only downside is no dividend. Top Ups: More buying on dips. All in companies that I think have good fundamentals, technicals or both. QQ - 270p MONY - 206p DLG - 271p FRES - 923p CLX - 118p PMI - 173p Sells:GTLY - 216pI had a great run with Gately but it got to the point technically where I felt I should sell. I will certainly look for an opportunity to get back in. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 3195Dividends:Since last time = £ 11401 November 2021"Break out"Markets:So, has the FTSE broken out?I said back in August that I felt the 7200 level was the key area the FTSE needed to move through to show strength. It did this convincingly in the middle of the month and has since tested the area as support at least 3 times since. 
On the flip side almost everything I look at seems overbought and ready for a reversal, so I've got mixed feelings. I read somewhere that at the moment the market is sucking in 'retail' ie. you and me, whilst 'professional' money is exiting the market. Maybe if interest rates go up in November we'll see a correction but at the moment the trend is still up. Portfolio highlights:HSBA -Banks seem to be back on top at the moment, posting tasty profits and re-instating dividends after Covid. I feel like I should hold onto HSBA for a while yet.Target 600p. HL - I think DIY investing is a long term growth market. HL looks like it is trying to find a longer term low between the 1200 and 1400p mark. The shares had a good short term bounce this month but I should have added under 1400p when I had the chance! I'll probably get another crack at it....... RIV - I've had this one for nearly 3 years now. Way too long! It made a sort of double bottom on the monthly chart and caught me out but I think it has got pretty good fundamentals and a good buisness so I've stuck with it and added. It recently announced the sale of part of it's business, at a good price, and promptly jumped 20%. Still looks quality to me. Hold. FRES - This was the perfect set up on the monthly chart and it has rallied well off the 750p lows. Probably need to top up in the 850p region.... CLX - This relatively new issue has raced up over the last few months and on good volume. It's just broken up into new teritory which looks very bullish. Should have added at 94p, God damn it. LLOY - See HSBA above. Target 55-60p. Buys:New Positions:QQ. - @ 287p I continue to like the defense sector. I just think that China and Russia etc etc are problems that are not going away. Multi year trend is up. Looks like good value to me under 300p, profits look good and it has cash on the balance sheet. Add at 250p and build a position. Follow the plan. Top Ups: ULVR - @ 3871p I can't ignore the long term support at around the 3800p level. Reasonable dividend and huge ROA. CNC - @ 87p I'm banking on the longer term trend and the solid fundamentals. I accept it may take time to consolidate. DLG - @ 284p Surely this is worth 4 quid? AGFX - @ 98p I don't quite understand why this one is still heading south which is probably a bad sign but it looks like a good company at a fair price so I bought more. IBST - @ 187p It still makes BRICKS! BT. - @ 142p Possible take over? COST - @ 55p Costains forward orders and forecasts look promising. I'm looking ahead a couple of years but think it's currently undervalued. GTLY - @ 231p My reasearch says this is worth north of 280p so I added on a dip. TUI - @ 232p Added on a daily dip. VOD - @ 111p Another daily dip. Vodafone pays a tasty dividend but does have scary debt. Sells:TEKBugger, bugger, bugger. I got scared out of this one on a massive tree shake and sold it. Of course it instantly rallied back up past recent highs. The one (but not the first or the last) that got away! Still made about 60-70% so it's not all bad. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 1350Dividends:Since last time = £ 94301 October 2021"Going Bananas"Markets:FTSE is still bouncing along and remained relatively unchanged during September at around 7100.Inflation and supply chain worries I guess. Personally I think we need a bit of inflation to reduce some of the debt burden and bring wages back in line with living costs. Portfolio highlights:GTLY -Gately is still flying up and I've got an eye on 300p for this one. If it dips back near 230/240 I might add. RIV - This one broke through resistance and a declining trendline at 240p. Looks like the stochastic still has some head room. Note to self to re-value and come up with a target £. RR. - Rolls Royce news feeds have gone bananas! Contracts left right and center for new engines, nuclear energy and more. Plus disposals and balance sheet sorting. The share price has had another great month and as one of my biggest holdings I'm now showing a good profit. I hope I can find the nerve to hold on to this for a couple of years??? Buys:New Positions:FRES - 799.01p Fresnillo is a mining company producing gold, silver, lead and zinc I made a good profit from this following the 2019 / 20 low and it's starting to look like good value again. This is an inital buy to see where it goes. Top Ups: GSK - @ 1440p and 1399p HSBA - @ 377p RR - @ 108p Managed to get in just before it shot up to 145p. Lovely MONY - @ 223p This continues to drop but I'm keeping the faith for now. IBST - @ 215p It makes BRICKS! FCAP - @ 35p Sells:ITV - @ 112.93pITV looked like it had topped out for me so I took profits. 70% in just over a year is Ok by me. Interestingly, I've just taken a spread bet long out at 2ppp based on the 30 minute chart. AMS - @ 264.07p I re-valued this and had it on about 60 times earnings but don't really see it making that so I sold out for just over £200 profit. I migth get back in if it drops back. SNR - @ 155.82p My buys here were a mixed bag and I saved the trade by buying during the pandemic lows. Overall I made about 25% so I'm happy with that. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 3196Dividends:Since last time = £ 105501 September 2021"Celebrated too early!!"Markets:The FTSE shimmied sideways this month from 7040p to 7130p. Nothing spectacular.I've added a wieghted average price (WAP) to my charts showing my average purchase price. Sounds like a pretty simple thing really but it's useful to have a quick visual marker showing my profit point. Portfolio highlights:TEK -Tekcapital continues to do well, gaining another 15-20% last month. I know it's small cap and risky and I've only really got a small holding but it's exciting to watch a share go from 10p to 30p in 4 months. I see no reason why it can't continue to climb back up to its previous highs of 40-50p. FNX - My top up last month looks well timed so far. I found no explanation for the sell off down to 120, other than some profit taking. Hopefully this one can continue to build from here. RR. - Rolls Royce has had a good couple of months but is obviously a bit broken longer term. I have a bucket load of shares (WAP ~129p) so would love to see it gradually re-build over a few years. I keep reading articles about it's involvement in build small modular nuclear reactors which I think might be interesting. I'm also getting lots of spam from 'Motly fool' about why it's such a good share for 2021 and beyond, maybe they know something I don't? Buys:New Positions:FCAP - 33.6p FinnCap is a stockbroker and investment bank and it came up on one of my screens in August. It fits all my usual fundamental criteria; good ROA, cheap and no debt. Technically it wasn't perfect but as Warren Buffet says it can be enough to buy good companies at a fair price rather than waiting for a bargain. COST - 61.31p Costain is an engineering and construction company involved in energy, defense, climate change, utilities and pretty much anything else you can think of. Judging by its share price over the last few years I would have said it was going to the knackers yard but recent updates and results have it trading ahead of expectations with growing orders, increasing profits and a positive balance sheet. It's hard to gauge future prospects but looks like there's potential so I took an initial position. Top Ups: No top ups this month Sells:MGGT - @ 722.72pI celebrated too early with this one. Lovely bottom fish in June 2020 at 298p and top up Jan 2021 at 435p. Then the bid comes in August 2021 at 800p, happy days! Only I went and sold it too early just before a counter bid was made and cost me about 15% profit. Bugger! I guess I've not had many bids in the past and it's hard to know exactly what to do. I shouldn't grumble really.. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 2331Dividends:Since last time = £ 71801 August 2021"Stick to the plan"Markets:We had a medium sized wobble in the middle of July which saw the FTSE down to 6800 on the 19th.It's had a nice recovery since and is back over the 7000 mark but now needs to clear 7200 to prove itself. A couple of my positions hit target this month so I took some profits. When to sell is one of my biggest dilemmas which normally has me staring at the laptop for hours biting my nails. Obvioulsy, I'd love to hang on to long term winners and add to profits but I haven't worked out how to predict the future yet? Answers on a post card..... Stick to the plan I say. If the markets head south again at least I've banked some gains as a hedge against any possible downturn. Portfolio highlights:TEK -Tekcapital is an interesting one. They invest in University technology by purchasing a share of the rights to the intellectual property. They play a role in taking the product to market and then benefit from the profits. The fundamentals are great but are almost too good to be true which makes me a little cautious. It currently trades on 4 times profits, returns 22% on assets and has no debt. Lots of positive trading updates coming through aswell. Almost everything else in the portfolio has gone sideways or down this month. Buys:New Positions:No new positions this month. Top Ups: CNC - @ 79p I initially bought into Concurrent last month as it looked like it was approaching the lower end of a longer term up-trend. I added this position on another daily stochastic low. The next area of support is down at ~ 60p which would be a large swing away from my first entry point but the numbers all still look good. Could be a bumpy ride... DLG - @ 283.18p I'm building a position in Direct Line based on the good fundamentals, hugh dividend (and frequent special dividends) and the multi year low trading range that we are in. AGFX - @ 98.82p I was a little nervous to see Argentex drop at the beginning of the month which was due to it publishing year end results. They were obviously not what the market was hoping for?? I didn't think they sounded that bad but hey, what do I know? I was either going to have to sell out or buy some more. You gotta be in it to win it! Buy when others are selling? Also, theres good support at this level. GSK - @ 1403.14p After missing the opportunity to add under 1200p I have been waiting for another dip in Glaxo. Simple as that really. FNX - @ 128p Fonix share price has really dissapointed since I bought earlier in the year. This was another one where I would either have to cut and run or add some more. You can't just sit and watch like a rabbit in the headlights, you have to do something to materially chage your position. (I read that somewhere) BT - @ 167.56 The worry here, for me, is the debt but the chart is just too good. It had such a good run up since February and was bound to pause for breath at some point. How can it not head back up to 250p?? It's re-instating it's dividend and some guy called Patrick Drahi bought about 2.5 billion worth at this price back in June. MONY - @ 252.5p Good value. Amazing return. No debt. 4.6% div. Simples! (or is that Compare the market??) Sells:K3C - @ 1856.24pThis was starting to look expensive to me and had dropped a bit but I couldn't bring myself to buy more. I waited for a small rally and sold for a 75% gain in under 2 years. SBRY - @ 282.12p Sainburys is in a longer term multi year down-trend, has quite a lot of debt, and like all supermarkets doesn't generate great returns. It's not all bad but I've had a good run and it looked like a good spot to jump off. 27% up in 2 1/2 years. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 5825Dividends:Since last time = £ 46201 July 2021"Somewhat Underwhelming"Markets:June was a bit of a nothing month in my opinion.The FTSE Started at about 7015p and finished at about 7145p. Maybe we're just re-grouping, who knows?? I took the opportunity to sell a couple of positions and bank some profits this month (see below). It allways feels good and tidys things up a little. Portfolio highlights:GSK -Glaxo has continued to bounce off its March lows which I thought looked pretty clear. My only moan is that I haven't really been able to get as much cash in as I would like. I'm still looking for further entries, maybe in the 1380p region. We'll see..... BT - BT had a great month (well 6 months really) and continues to climb. Some guy called Patrick Drahi bought 2.5 billion pounds (or 12%) worth of BT sahres June! That's quite a heafty vote of confidence. The stochastic isn't a million miles away from giving me a sell signal but I'm going to try and hold on as long as possible. Plus they've reinstated the dividend. GTLY - There was a small wobble this month due to a security breach but that seems to have fizzled out and we saw new highs for the year. The question is can it break through the 220p level and into uncharted waters? More patience required. Buys:New Positions:CNC - @ 91.8p A new purchase of a company I have owned before. Concurrent makes computer boards and products for a wide range of applications. The last set of results were good, it makes a good profit and has cash. I bought at what I felt was strong support in a broader uptrend. HL. - @1650p I've been trying to find a good entry here for a while. I have my ISAs and SIPP with Hargreaves Lansdown and I am very happy with their service and platform. They're not the cheapest but I never have any problems and I suspect that's the same for all their other customers. They generate a very attractive 30% return on assets and have positive cash on the balance sheet. I see the share price in an area of sideways consolidation at the moment and so bought an initial position. Lets see where it goes... Top Ups: AGFX - @ 124.47p Argentex, the foreign exchange broker, looked good fundamentally so I added on a daily dip. It has been going sideways for a while but we're a good three months since my initial purchase and I think time is a factor as well as price. They've since announced full year results which were somewhat underwhelming. No panic, I'll just watch it for now. Sells:MNDI - @ 1856.24pThis got to the top of my range so I said goodbye for now. I should have bought more of this on the way up. JMAT - @ 3017.56p Monthly stochastic told me to sell so I sold. I bought this right at the bottom of the pandemic which is great but only took a small position so getting rid tidys things up. MGNS - @ 2225.50p Same resons as JMAT to be honest. I don't know if it'll continue up (they usually do!!!) but it's good to bank some profits. PSON - @ 833.05p Not quite a technical sell yet but I re-valued it and decided to sell due to a declining profit, moderate debt and 'nothing special' return on assets. I did feel like a bit of an idiot when I started buying back in Nov 2019 and it kept dropping and I kept buying. But hey, it turned around and made over £3000 profit so I'm not complaining. Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 6575Dividends:Since last time = £ 20601 June 2021"Stop loss head scratching ...."Markets:Wow, what a fantastic bank holiday weekend!!It really feels like this warm weather has been a long time coming. The FTSE charged through 7000 in early May and now this looks like it's providing a level of support. The optomist in me sees no reason why we can't continue back up to the pre-Covid highs of 7700 assuming there's no more global catastrophes around the corner. Overall my portfolio has rebounded around 60% since the Covid lows. I'm so glad I didn't panic too much during the meltdown and actually added to some positions or open new positions. Stop Losses: I've been thinking about stop losses recently and trying to work out how they fit in. If I'm honest I used them in the past but haven't over the last year or two. They always seem to act as a 'magnet', sucking me in, gleefully taking my cash and now I see them more as a negative target rather than a positive one. I do accept the need for risk management and protection of capital it's just I've had so many experiences where I've been stopped out only to see the share price bounce back up to where I bought and usually continue even higher. I understand the possiblity that the share price could also continue down or even go to zero but that normally comes with some bad news, profit warning or some other accounting hiccup. Then you've got the likes of Warren Buffet who says if you can't stomach a 50% draw down on a position then you shouldn't be in shares at all. Some people set a stop loss using a percentage drop in share price, some base it on position size, direction of moving averages or a change in fundamentals or valuation. There seems to be a multitude of approaches to this area of risk management and, as always, no single accepted method. My risk control on entries is based around buying at technical lows/support, small position sizes relative to overall funds, buying fundamentally good businesses and adding in stages to build an overall position. My real dilemma is how stop losses fit in as part of an exit strategy to protect and maximise profits. At the moment I generally sell on a daily stochastic high once the monthly stochastic is overbought. On the plus side this normally gets me out with a good profit. The trouble is, quite often, these shares are 'winners' that continue up. I think a trailing stop could keep me in, allow the position to run and access future gains whilst protecting existing gains. I'm not quite sure what time frame I should be using or should it be moving average direction or some other metric/indicator? Portfolio highlights:GTLY -Gately broke up through 180p this month after a positive trading statement which mentioned my favourite 3 little words - "ahead of expectations". This was followed later in the month with another positive update. After a good entry in Sept 2020 I have managed to add twice on the way up and will be happy to add more if an opportunity presents. I'm about 40% up on this one so far. SBRY - Sainsburys seems to be quietly squeezing higher and is now firmly in profit teritory. There's a falling trendline ahead to watch out for and some previous resistance around 280-300p. If we get up there in a month or two I'll re-assess whether to take profits. SNR - I'm very pleased to see a bid for this by Lone Star Global Aquisitions although the offer of 176p has been rejected by the board. The shares still bounced 34% on Friday but we'll have to see where that leaves us. Bidding war please! Dividends - I don't always pay enough attention to dividneds but over the years they have been consistent and not insignificant. In a month where I've not taken any profits on trades it's nice to get a good set of dividends. Buys:New Positions:No new positions this month. Top Ups: IBST - @ 219.58p I mulled this one for a bit as it's most recent accounts show a pre-tax loss for the year making any valuation or return on asset calculation difficult. This seems as though it could be a 'Covid' blip though and based on 3 to 4 previous years I value it on about 10 time earnings. It is also underatking a huge redevelopment of it's mothballed Atlas site and expansion of existing sites. This isn't due to come on line for a year or two but that fits in with my timeframe so I added some more. Sells:No sells this month.Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 0Dividends:Since last time = £ 172501 May 2021"BANK IT!"Markets:The post Covid bull market continues upwards and the FTSE briefly topped 7000 in the middle of the month before finishing just underneath at 6970.It might need a couple of goes to break up properly and if it does there's empty space up to the 7500 - 7700 level. Portfolio highlights:AMS - has made some impressive gains since buying in at 227p hopefully indicating a shift in trend direction from its 2018 downturn. I will look to add if it comes back down to the 260p area.ULVR - seems to have bounced off support at 3700p. It paused briefly but not long enough for me to add. I guess you have to be happy with what you've got and stick to the plan. I'll add if I see an opportunity. PSON - continues its upward march and I'm looking for 900p - 1000p to sell. Buys:New Positions:CEY - @ 107p Only one new position since last time. Centamin is a mineral exploration and mining company of precious metals. Like many other precious metal miners it has fallen in recent months. It came down to a level of support and ticked most of my other boxes so I bought an initial position at 107p. Top Ups: TEK - @ 11.2p To be fair this is quite a risky one and I do seem to be chasing it down. It does have pretty good fundamantals for me though and positive cash so I'm prepared to wait. Also, it featured positively in a recent Stockopedia podcast. DLG - @ 297p I just can't ignore the strong fundamentals and the massive dividend. I do seem to be adding around the same price point though so need to be careful managing risk here. I don't want to build up too much all in the same area. RR. - @ 106p Risky again and 'down and out'. Well, hopefully not completely out and a future recovery just round the corner?? Plus, I bought the rights issue at 32p which gives me some comfort. FNX - @ 169p Not technically a buy for me as there's not enough data to display monthly indicators but it's in a good daily uptrend and so I added on a pullback. I must re-value this one to see where it's at and try and come up with a target. Sells:IHC - @ 124pThis one has had a great run up and I feel like I managed to pick a good 'bottom' back in October. It has nearly doubled since then, hence the sell, plus I felt it looked like the value wasn't there anymore. Obviously it's difficult to predict future earnings so I don't bother in general. It may still have more to run but I'm happy with an average profit of over 40% in 6 months. BANK IT! SYNT - @ 498p Well, I had to sell this at some point. I waited for a strong daily chart to make sure I got out at the top in that time-frame. Again, this could easily run higher but I've got a plan and it involves taking profits!! Trading Profits:Since last time = £ 2744Dividends:Since last time = £ 60131 April 2021"Slim pickings"Markets:March started with the FTSE100 around the 6500 mark and had a great first few weeks making some good gains which it has held on to. We're now in the 6725 region. The obvious area to crack going forward is the 7000 mark which provided some support pre-Covid. Fingers crossed we can make it up there. I wonder if there will be a summer lull in the markets this year? Portfolio highlights: BT, SBRY, AV. and ULVR all made solid gains this month, mainly in the first couple of weeks as the rest of the market began to rise. GSK is still well and truely in my 'Buy window' and I'm desperate to buy more but must be patient! The daily chart is starting to rotate back down and I'll be intersted to see if it makes new lows or finds support. Neither would supprise me and either way I suspect I'll buy more!! My holding in SNYT has been on my 'profit taking' list for 2 or 3 months now but I can't help being greedy with it. It makes medical nitrile gloves which are still over priced and in huge demand. I should probably buy more shares but I keep dithering. Fear and Greed.. Buys: I've been quite busy this month buying into some new positions and adding to existing ones: New Positions: ULVR - Looked like long term support around 3700p where I bought in but the monthly stochastic could suggest further falls. Pays a reasonable dividend and was beginning to look cheap. It hadn't really triggered my normal technical buy indicators but sometimes you don't get a second chance. If it keeps going back up I'm in for the ride, if it drops to 3000 I'd probably buy more. AGFX - This relatively small (MCap 144 million) foreign exchange services company has potential with increasing profits and a large cash pile. FNX - This is a relatively new issue that floated in Sept 2020 and provides mobile payments and messaging via SMS. There wasn't really enough of a chart to get a technical green light (though it is in a nice uptrend) however the valuation, return and debt all looked attractive. AMS - Advanced Medical Solutions had a great run up until 2018 and has since lagged. It makes wound dressings and surgical products and I think it's starting to look like good value again. There's no debt either! MONY - Needs no indtroduction...Surely people are always looking to save money? I couldn't quite believe the numbers here but it looks like it generates almost a 90% return on assets. GILD - I couldn't resist this one! Guild E-sports is a new company that signs and manages gamers. It's not making a profit at the moment so usually I would touch it with a barge pole but it looks like some support down around 5/5.5p and it has cash on it's balance sheet. It's a punt in a promising area. Top Ups: HSBA - Started paying a dividend again and is still in the early stages of a longer term recovery. I'll sell it when it hits 800p again! VCT - I ummm'd and ahhh'd a bit over this one mainly because this purchase was at quite similar levels to previous buys. I don't really like adding at the same price point as it just increases the risk at that level but the buys have all been half my normal position size so its a relatively small position. Oh, there's a massive divergence on the daily stochastic too which I couldn't resist. DLG - Huge dividend and loads of cash. I had to top this up really. GTLY - This one continues upwards. I wonder if 200p is on the cards? Nice divi and good RoA. RIV - Topped up on a daily stochastic pullback. IHC - Topped up at 119p Sells: GRG - Had an amazing run up to 2300p from 1200p lows where I bought. It bounced so fast I couldn't really get much money in and so I figured take profits. It was starting to look fair value. BBY - This was starting to look over valued and getting towards the top of a range so it had to go. RDSA - Oil? who knows where thats going long term? Plus, you never regret taking profits. (usually never!!!) INVP - I didn't quite like or understand the last report which suggested a profit dip. Plus I've had this for a while and ended up with the N91 shares (see the next entry) when it demerged. It was all a bit messy so I got rid of both to tidy things up. N91 - See above. Spread bets I put a pound a point on BT and DLG at the beginning of the month and, probably through dumb luck, they've gone up! Yay. Now I don't know what to do with them??? Trading Profits: Since last time = £ 1812 Dividends: Since last time = £ 177 31 March 2021"And the winner is....."Bottom Fishing, of course!!March is my investing 'year end' and I always crunch the numbers at the end of the month to see how the year went. Decide what worked and what didn't so I can try and improve for next year. Actually, in over 20 odd years of investing in the markets, only the last 2 have been devoted to 'Bottom Fishing'. I've always had a plan or stratgey and have tried many different fundamental and technical approaches but this one works! As I've said before, I think there's method in the the madness. I believe you've got to have a solid plan that includes:
I'm looking for a set of rules that gives me, a) more winners than losers, and b) bigger winners than losers. So, anyway, here's my stats for 2020/21:
Markets: March started with the FTSE100 around the 6500 mark and had a great first few weeks making some good gains which it has held on to. We're now in the 6725 region. The obvious area to crack going forward is the 7000 mark which provided some support pre-Covid. Fingers crossed we can make it up there. I wonder if there will be a summer lull in the markets this year? Portfolio highlights: BT, SBRY, AV. and ULVR all made solid gains this month, mainly in the first couple of weeks as the rest of the market began to rise. GSK is still well and truely in my 'Buy window' and I'm desperate to buy more but must be patient! The daily chart is starting to rotate back down and I'll be intersted to see if it makes new lows or finds support. Neither would supprise me and either way I suspect I'll buy more!! My holding in SNYT has been on my 'profit taking' list for 2 or 3 months now but I can't help being greedy with it. It makes medical nitrile gloves which are still over priced and in huge demand. I should probably buy more shares but I keep dithering. Fear and Greed.. Buys: I've been quite busy this month buying into some new positions and adding to existing ones: New Positions: ULVR - Looked like long term support around 3700p where I bought in but the monthly stochastic could suggest further falls. Pays a reasonable dividend and was beginning to look cheap. It hadn't really triggered my normal technical buy indicators but sometimes you don't get a second chance. If it keeps going back up I'm in for the ride, if it drops to 3000 I'd probably buy more. AGFX - This relatively small (MCap 144 million) foreign exchange services company has potential with increasing profits and a large cash pile. FNX - This is a relatively new issue that floated in Sept 2020 and provides mobile payments and messaging via SMS. There wasn't really enough of a chart to get a technical green light (though it is in a nice uptrend) however the valuation, return and debt all looked attractive. AMS - Advanced Medical Solutions had a great run up until 2018 and has since lagged. It makes wound dressings and surgical products and I think it's starting to look like good value again. There's no debt either! MONY - Needs no indtroduction...Surely people are always looking to save money? I couldn't quite believe the numbers here but it looks like it generates almost a 90% return on assets. GILD - I couldn't resist this one! Guild E-sports is a new company that signs and manages gamers. It's not making a profit at the moment so usually I would touch it with a barge pole but it looks like some support down around 5/5.5p and it has cash on it's balance sheet. It's a punt in a promising area. Top Ups: HSBA - Started paying a dividend again and is still in the early stages of a longer term recovery. I'll sell it when it hits 800p again! VCT - I ummm'd and ahhh'd a bit over this one mainly because this purchase was at quite similar levels to previous buys. I don't really like adding at the same price point as it just increases the risk at that level but the buys have all been half my normal position size so its a relatively small position. Oh, there's a massive divergence on the daily stochastic too which I couldn't resist. DLG - Huge dividend and loads of cash. I had to top this up really. GTLY - This one continues upwards. I wonder if 200p is on the cards? Nice divi and good RoA. RIV - Topped up on a daily stochastic pullback. IHC - Topped up at 119p Sells: GRG - Had an amazing run up to 2300p from 1200p lows where I bought. It bounced so fast I couldn't really get much money in and so I figured take profits. It was starting to look fair value. BBY - This was starting to look over valued and getting towards the top of a range so it had to go. RDSA - Oil? who knows where thats going long term? Plus, you never regret taking profits. (usually never!!!) INVP - I didn't quite like or understand the last report which suggested a profit dip. Plus I've had this for a while and ended up with the N91 shares (see the next entry) when it demerged. It was all a bit messy so I got rid of both to tidy things up. N91 - See above. Spread bets I put a pound a point on BT and DLG at the beginning of the month and, probably through dumb luck, they've gone up! Yay. Now I don't know what to do with them??? Trading Profits: Since last time = £ 1812 Dividends: Since last time = £ 177 Sunday 28th February 2021"3 little words?....."Markets:The FTSE gained about 200 points this month ending at the 6500 mark (give or take). If I had to pick I would say the trend is up. Portfolio highlights: TUI and Carnival- Well, the travel companies have had a pretty good run this month. I was feeling pretty glum 6 months ago with a good 10% of my overall portfolio invested in TUI and CCL. They have both re-bounded well and with the rights issue (which I took up) I'm actually now slightly ahead on TUI. More to come from these two I'm sure. Stagecoach group- SGC has also added a good 30% over the last month as confidence starts to return. Glaxo- GSK continues to drop but I see this as an opportunity to add. We're well into a longer term area of support at the 1200 mark and, going back even further, 1000 might even be an area to watch? I'm focusing on the 6% dividend, strong profits and return on assets. Bottom Fishing at its finest! Manolette Parteners- MANO has been a bit strange this month to be honest. Last month it fell 30% in a day on news that it's profits would be hit. This month it has completely reversed to recover those losses and is now back where it started! WEIRD?? I still like this one for the longer term, the fundamentals look good to me and it will be interesting to see if it can build a base and move up any more. I very nearly bought some more at its lows but couldn't pluck up the courage. Drat! Buys: GSK - Added 217 @ 1288p on a daily low. CLX - Added 1117 @ 125p on what I thought was a break up but was just a test of resistance. It also released a statement which mentioned those three little words every trader longs to hear.....??? 'Ahead of expectations' of course!! INVP - Added 722 @ 193p inside a range which it has since broken through. It looks cheap to me and pays a good dividend. TUI(rights) - 2398 @ 95p. I decided to fully subscribe to the rights as I think this will re-build itself in time. TEK - 5000 @ 18p and 5000 at 15p. This is a super small cap which, to be honest, I wouldn't normally buy but all the other, 'fundamental', ducks lined up so I'm in. This company sources new technology and inventions, aims to acuire liscences for the intellectual property and facilitate bringing the products to market. SBRY - Added 1260 @ 230p on a daily low. MONY - New purchase 559 @ 268p. It hadn't quite hit the stochastic low I was looking for but had hit relatively strong area of support. The numbers look really strong although I think a recent update was cautious looking ahead. Sells: CARD - Sold @ 35p for a painful loss of £ 2060. I just got fed up of waiting for this to show any signs of recovery and it was a mistake to buy in the first place. I think fear of complete loss got the better of me and I couldn't bring myself to buy any more. I'm glad it's gone but not particularly happy with the overall trade. Hopefully it's one I can learn from...... PRU - Sold @ 1171 for a small profit. I couldn't decifer its last statement so erred on the side of caution and got out. I hadn't really built up a meaningful position anyway so it's one less to watch. Spread bets I've lost another £ 58 spread betting this month. What a failure! Actually it's quite good fun! I think it's the ability to be active in the market that I like compared to my main share dealing strategy which is relatively slow. Maybe thats where I'm going wrong; trying to time the market using technicals alone? I wonder how low I can run the account before I get a margin call? Profits, or more accurately this time, Loss: Since last time = £ -1953 Dividends: Since last time = £ 818 Friday 29th January 2021"Try and try again....."Markets:I haven't see any definite direction this month, in fact I think we ended up pretty much back where we started around the 6500 mark for the FTSE100. One minute we're up on vaccine news, the next we're down on vaccine news! Longer term trend is up and I figure it's a good time to be patient and let things play out. After all most of my trades are longer term so market noise should be ignored as much as possible. Ideas: Spread betting- My new forray into spread betting has been interesting this month. I thought I was on to a winning strategy and was up about 45 points half way through. I only gave it all back, and more, with a couple of disaster trades that ran away from me. I ended up £41 down with my tail between my legs again! I'm not giving up that easy though...... time to tweak the strategy. "Try and try again" Hard 'Stops' on all spreads from now on and I've also set some criteria to enter in the direction of the trend only; no 'reversals', 'continuations' only. Small Caps- I ran a screen, or rather trawled through the small cap and AIM listings on the LSE website, and did a basic first pass on anything that looked interesting. The result was that I came up with about 20 new stocks to watch and one that I took a position on, Calnex Solutions (CLX). There were 4 or 5 others that I wanted to buy based on the fundamental and technicals but the spread on these was huge, 10 -20%!! Also the EMS (exchange market size), the maximum amount the market makers are obliged to sell per trade, was quite small meaning it might be easy to build up individual trades but difficult to exit a larger position. I was quite excited about some of them but had to pass in the end. Not worth the risk. Back to the high street? I asked my wife for some market advice this week whilst we were out on one of our family walks. She thinks the high street will be busy again as soon as lockdown is lifted........ makes sense, I think?? Lots of pent up shoppers desperate to splash some cash... Portfolio: SBRY. Continues to add to recent gains. I wonder how Argos has integrated into the buisness and how well it's doing during lockdown? GRGS. Greggs has bounced like a rubber band ball since hitting recent lows at 1120p. I think the strategy worked pretty well getting in at around 1200p. I may have to sell this one if it gets up close to previous highs around 2500p? PSON. Pearson updated the market last week confirming expected earnings and that it had benefited from its online learning portfolio during the Covid pandemic. There were also rumours of a short squeeze this week when it raced up almost 20% on Wednesday morning. Squeeze away !!! GSK. Glaxo continues to form a longer term bottom in the 1300-1400p range. I don't know if this is the actual low or not so am just watching and waiting for further entry opportunities. I'll take any dividends along the way. JMAT. Continues to push higher, I'm just mad at myself I didn't add when I had the chance in the autumn. MANO. Manolette dropped by about 30% on Tuesday following a trading update. Don't you just hate it when that happens!!? I knew it was mean spirtited investing in an insolvency outfit during a global pandemic. Apparently whilst many companies are struggling the government support is keeping them all afloat. Serves me right I guess. The update actually sounded half positive so I might hang around for a bit. PRU. Fell this week when it announced a possible fund raise/?rights issue. I'm still not sure whether to buy more, hold or sell. I suspect i'll sell it but might wait and see what happens next week. Buys: GTLY. I topped up GTLY adding 915 @ 147p. I still think this looks quite cheap and returns about 18% on assets. IBST. Ibistock has bounced off its autumn lows and looks like it's found a new range between 190 and 220p. I added 725 @ 197p. It was also tipped by HL this month. MGGT. Added 333 @ 435p. I missed the entry by a mile here as it slipped to 380 but I hope this will even out longer term. I'm in at 298p already so we're good. BMN. Added 7118 @ 20p. Again, I missed the bottom of the pull back but the fundamental still look amazing. I hope it's not too good to be true. CLX. Calnex is a relatively new issue invloved in IT network integration and optimisation. It looks quite expensive relative to past earnings but has a high return on assets that I hope will increase future earnings. It's also cash positive. I bought 1207 @ 115p which may or may not turn out to be the bottom of a current range. Sells: RMG. According to my calculations it was time to sell Royal Mail. It was a difficult decission as I'm sure it could easily go higher but my fundamental and technical pointers both said sell. Sold 4984 @ 422p for nearly 10k profit. Profits: Since last time = £ 9994 Dividends: Since last time = £ 430 Blogs 2020December 2020:Thur: 31 December 2020: "If at first you don't succeed....."Markets: It's been quite an exciting few weeks in the markets which has held on to much of the gains it made following the Pfizer vaccine approval. Good news yesterday re the Oxford jab and the EU deal but this seems to be balanced out by rising infection levels and tier 3/4 restrictions. I guess we need to wait for the new vaccine to roll out and prove itself if the market is to rise futher. Ideas: I re-kindled a spread betting account that I have with IG and started trading using a 'mini' version of my main 'double stochastic / value model'. I've had no success in the past with spreads but that's not gonna stop me trying and trying again. Out of 14 trades this month I made 7 quid!!! Obviously I'm starting small and more importantly trying to control risk to see if it's got any legs. If I can show any signs of consistency then I can scale it up. If not, it will fizzle out as it has several times before. Portfolio: Everything seems to be doing pretty well at the mo. All boats rise on an incomming tide as they say. I'm still holding RMG and SYNT which I mentioned last time and am looking out for exits. PSON, ITV and PMI are all showing good gains. BMN stands out though which is up over 60% in a month. This is a small cap and I only took out half my normal position (Booo) but I'm crossing my fingers here. It mines Vanadium which is used, amongst other things, in batteries for electric vehicles. It's on about 2 times earnings (which seems crazy low), 27% return on assets and pretty much no debt. Buys: MANO. I've taken 2 new positions in this company that deals with insolvency. It has a relatively fair value but shows a good return on assets and has cash. GSK. Always happy to buy some Glaxo and it looks like it's forming a monthly low at the moment. I started my position with an initial purchase last month and followed up with a second buy this month. I will hopefully get to add more if it drops any further and collect the 5.9% dividend in the meantime. HSBA top up. This is screaming 'long term low' so I added some more on a daily correction. Also paying a 6% dividend. Sells: HFD. This was on my sell list last month. The monthly stochasctic is over 80 and it's had such a strong run during the summer, going up almost 6 times, I felt it was a good time to take profits. Looking back on the trade my entry was good however I passed on the opportunity to add to my position at its lows which is a bit frustrating. I think that's called FEAR?? I'm very happy with over 60% profit though. OMG. I re-valued this one and it didn't add up. It looks way too expensive to me and I hadn't really built a meanigful position so I got rid. One less share to watch. Profits: Since last time - £ 1978 Dividends: Since last time - £ 579 November 2020 Blogs:Wednesday: 18 November 2020: "Always pay yourself first"Markets: I haven't posted for a while partly due to Covid and partly due to a bit of apathy towards the markets but I felt the need to update and get some thoughts out there. It has been a great week or two in the markets since the vaccine news and related developments. This saw pretty much everything bounce initially and then followed a steady rised over the next days and and weeks. Ideas: I'm sure there are lots of opportunities to profit from the consequnces of Covid and I've tried to pick the bottom on a couple of shares over the last month or so. Areas I'm focusing on are:
I recently re-read the 'Richest man in Babylon' by G S Clason. This is a fantastic book with some simple but powerful take home messages. "Always pay yourself first" "The seven cures for a lean purse" "The five laws of gold" Highly recommended! Portfolio highlights: RMG, which I started buying 18 months ago and has made a lovely 'long bottom' allowing me to add several positions along the way. The monthly stochastic is rotating up nicely and I'm looking for an exit in between 3 and 4 quid. HFD made a sharper low in March this year following a longer period of decline. I jumped on a bit early but it has rebounded nicely and I'm wondering if profits should be taken soon, there could be some selling up around 300p. If only I'd bought more when it was 50p... dream on! SYNT has also been performing well and I managed to get in at some good prices. The monthly stochastic has followed a predictable path so far. Target 600p (greedy, I know). Buys: Top ups in DLG, RIV, CARD, RR (plus rights) New positions in MGNS, GTLY, GRG, IHC, GSK, IBST, BMN Sells: FRES. I finally sold this in October after holding for a little over two years. It could easily go higher and its previous two longer term peaks have been in the 2000p range but my strategy looks for reproducability and so it had to go once the monthly Stochastic went over 80. I waited for a daily high to close out and take 5k in profits which gave an average gain in the 50% region. NXT. Went for a small profit of about £ 145. I only opened a small position here and before I had chance to build it jumped higher. I took quick profits just to keep the numbers down really. Profits: Since last time - £ 5281 Dividends: Since last time - £ 898 September 2020 Blogs:Friday: 04 September 2020: "Good cop Bad cop"I've been watching Annual shareholder meetings for Berkshire Hathaway on You Tube this month. They appeared on my feed and I couldn't resist! Basically Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger talk their way through the Berkshire annual report and then spend anything up to 7 or 8 hours ansewring questions from shareholders in the audience. They're actually quite the double act! Buffet sits on one side cracking jokes and chugging away on cans of Coke (one of their biggest holdings), he's the 'good cop'. Munger sits on the other side playing more of a 'bad cop' role but is quite funny too. There's some really interesting insights and investment advice. Nothing particularly exciting happening in the portfolio at the moment. I'm still holding onto Fresnillo, the gold, silver and metal ore miner which is showing about £ 6k profit. I simply feel that this has got more to run based on pasts highs and the rising price of gold at the moment. Dividend income in August came to £ 561 which was welcome, as aways. No portfolio sells. July 2020 Blogs:Friday: 31 July 2020: "Half Right"July seemed to fly by as the country starts to open up more. Trading wise I topped up ITV buying 1773 @ 62p though its share price continues down. Will it sink as low as it's 2009 depths of 20p? It's earnings and debt both look ok. Otherwise the portfolio has been pretty quite. Sadly the dividends have all dried up for now :-( . However, I did read that some companies are beginning to re-instate payments for the second half of the year. Fingers crossed. One ray of light has been Fresnillo, the gold miner, which has been riding the gold price higher. I'm about 5k up on this at the moment! My stochastics tell me it's time to cash in but the little greed monster in my head wont let me. Maybe I should sell half. A tactic that means I'm half right either way; if it goes down I would have been right to sell half and if it continues up then I'd have been right to keep half!! Tuesday: 30 June 2020: "Hay wire" I left it till then end of the month to post this time. It's all been a bit manic going back to work tbh. Maybe monthly is the new weekly?? I've tried to tighten up my postion sizes this month. Everything seemed to go a bit 'hay wire' over COVID and panic set in a bit. I'm back to 1% normal position sizing with 0.5% on small cap/AIM or anything with less than ideal numbers. I'm a good 80% in at the moment so less cash to play around with but I feel like I've consolidated by adding to some of my existing holidings at value. Hopefully, I've also opened some new positions around longer term lows as per my broader strategy. Time will tell.......... No sells to report but I've got a couple that look like they are pushing up. Royal Mail's chart looks desperate to push up. Its on about 10 times profits but does have debt. Halford's made a huge move from 50p up to 200p over the last few months and has pulled back a little. If that can continue to rotate up on the monthly chart it could be worth some profit taking. I like the look of Pearsons move of its lows aswell. Educational resources can't have done baddly whilst all the kids were at home on Zoom and Teams remote learning? Balfour Beatty will be sold if it touches 300p and Fresnillo looks like it's about to pop?? New buys since last time: SNR - top up SGC - top up RR - top up OMG. New purchase 2642 x 83.25. I've been in and out of this before. It's not especially cheap at the moment(earnings wise) but has no debt and I couldn't resist the recent pullback ;-> June 2020 Blogs:Friday: 12 June 2020: "Hens Teeth"Looks like a reasonably healthy pull back towards the end of this week and I took the opportunity to open a few small positions. I added to SYNT the specialist chemical company who make, amongst many other things, nitrile surgical gloves. I use these at work and at the moment they are like Hens Teeth, no-where to be found. That's not strictly true, they are available in limited quantities and at hugely inflated prices but that must equal extra demand? I like their low debt too so I added 360 shares at 277p. Two new shares I've been watching and bought initial positions in today are NXT and MGGT. I remember nearly buying into Next at about £8 during the credit crunch only to watch them climb to £80 during the following Bull market. I somehow missed the opportunity to build a decent position when they recently fell to below £40 and so took a smallish position today at 5065p. They stopped delivering during lockdown but familiar bags have started arriving at our front door recently so I can ony assume they're back in business!?!?! MGGT is now a FTSE250 company due to its recent falls but I can't help keeping defense type companies on my watchlist. It's an engineering slash defense company and I just think that the UK government can't help themselves when it comes to defense. I addedd 335 shares at 298p. No sells this week or dividends. I think the word dividend may fade into history if we're not careful! Please bring them back. Friday: 05 June 2020: "On the look-out" The markets have been flying this week with pretty much all my holdings making good gains! Carnival and TUI especially making up lost ground. I have heard several people are making advance bookings for this year and next. Some confidence returning?? VOD, one of my bigger holdings, has been quietly sneaking back up over a week or four now. Nice gains in ITV and HFD. Should have bought more. Always 'buy two' as my wife says!! I bought some more PMI at 106p this week adding to two older buys in the 150/160 region and two lower, more recent, buys around 85 and 95. The daily stochastic touched shorter term lows again which was my reason for topping up. Oh, and there's no debt. Feels hard to buy into some shares after they bounced of such extreme lows but I'm trying to stay on the look out for bargains. May 2020 Blogs:Friday: 29 May 2020: "Miss the boat"No buys this week, the market has been moving up. It may be more for momentum traders right now. I had a few I've been watching; BAB,KGF, MGGT, RR but they all seem to have moved up so quickly I feel like I missed the boat. Best not to chase them? Happy to wait for the next boat.. There's a definite sense of things getting back to normal, COVID-wise. I think now is the time that the risk goes back up and we all ought to be extra careful. As we all start to get back together I hope we can avoid a second peak. Contact tracers at the ready!!! Friday: 22 May 2020: "Building positions" I added to HSBA this morning, 261 shares at 382p. Still sticking to my smaller position size. I see HSBC as a pretty strong organisation longer term and I am happy to build a position. It's monthly stochastic is reaching for the bottom and multi-year extreme lows are closer to 300p. Can we make it that far?? One small dividend this week from Prudential (actually paid last Fri). Recently, I was reading another blog on 'Bottom Fishing' as an investment stratgey and it described two seperate methods to try and pick the bottom? Either value based or technical. Actually I think it's better to use both. The company should be fundamentally cheap but also have some strength in its balance sheet. Then use technicals to time entries. I think you need some luck to pick the actual bottom. Much better to spread out the investment, building several positions around the low. Friday: 15 May 2020: "Building walls" Still no real sign of any decisive market direction from where I'm standing. One day its up the next its down. I bought some more BT this morning at about 15% below my last purchase price (plumbing the depths). Credit crunch lows were around 75p, maybe that's on the cards?? I can't believe people aren't using their phones more and using more braodband etc etc. I was tempted with RR and AV but I'm nervous about a second Covid wave and market downturn so thats me trying to be frugal. Oh yeah, I've been building a 'lockdown' wall in my garden too. Knackerd! Lovely thick beds though!! Friday: 08 May 2020: "Idle hands" I find myself looking for action now, though I can't really get a handle on the market. I started looking at some short term ideas mid-week and had to stop myself. I've never been able to time things day to day. Pearson (PSON) paid a small dividend this week of £ 141 and I had another look through its recent news and accounts. It reports being in a "strong financial position", seeing a "significant uplift" in the use of its digital products and "rapidly growing interest" in its global online learning business. I know my kids are all using its products to support their learning from home during this difficult time so I bought some more. 222 at 449p. Friday: 01 May 2020: "Glass half full" Lots of see-saw action going on at the moment. I'm not quick enough to keep up really. I'm more of a medium term trader looking for things to play out over a few months or maybe even a few years. I bought into ITV at 71.03p. It is on a silly valuation at about 5 times profits and has what I think is reasonabe debt. People are still watching telly, right?? My theoretical year end (investing) is the end of April so I totted up everything for 19/20 this week and did a bit of an audit: Capital gain (actually loss!) -11% Return 9% Winners:Losers 4:1 Ave win:Ave loss 2.5:1 Acutally, even though I ended the year poorer I'm quite pleased?!?! I'm ignoring the first stat; surely most people are down a bit at the mo?? The last three numbers make me think there's method in the madness. If the virus will just go away now, thank you, and we can all get back to normal that would be great. There may be some clever peolpe who saw it all coming and got out at the right time. I bet there's even some super clever people who shorted all the way down>!> Actually I'm sure most peolpe are stuck with a pretty nasty looking portfolio right now. I'm betting on a recovery over the next few years. Mine's a 'Glass half full'. April 2020 Blogs:Friday: 25 April 2020: "poised"A lot of charts I'm looking at seem ready to move up. Just a feeling; double / triple bottoms on dailies, negative divergences on stochastics, 50 SMA's flattening out. Probably means the opposite!! I wonder if we can start to get the UK back to work slowly and safely then maybe the markets can begin to recover. 'Stating the obvious' I've not added to or opened any positions since last week as we seem to be bouncing along the bottom. I don't really like adding to an existing position at a price I've already paid as it seems that I'm simply doubling my risk. I've done that before too many times and watched shares continue lower. I'd prefer to average down or sometimes average up at say 5-10% away from the last purchase. Then, I'm either lowering my average which means I need to recover less to turn a profit. Or, I'm adding to a confirmed up-trend in which I have some confidence. Friday: 17 April 2020: "Holding pattern" It feels like we're waiting for something now. Planes circling waiting for instruction? Bad news and things go back down. Good news and we continue up. I suppose we just have to be patient. Nothing wrong with that. Lots of companies seem to be cancelling dividends which is a bit of a bummer but I'm sure they'll start again in due course. No purchases this week, one small dividend from RIV of £86. Friday: 10 April 2020: "Panic buying or panic selling" The market seems to be continuing its rally. I wondered if it was going to push 6000 before Easter, but not quite. Individual shares are still all over the place, moving silly amounts in a day, but broadly things are moving up. I bought into JMAT this week. I'd been watching this for a while and pre-Covid had an entry point of around 2500 in mind. Didn't quite get the 1700p lows but managed 1833p, still using a smallish position size. I like the fundamentals and the technicals so lets hope this is a bargain. Also added more PMI and RIV. Both smallish asset management compaines with no debt and looking cheapish. Half of everything else in my portfolio is still down a good bit, but there's some green shoots here and there. I'm a bit weary things could suddenly reverse again. Not entirely sure the roller coaster ride is quite over yet....... A broader technical obsevation I have noted is the volume distributions on a lot of shares. Volume sometimes peaks at turning points and there's loads of examples where recent daily/weekly volume has surged and is now coming back down. Do people panic sell en masse at the bottom? Do other peolpe panic buy here? Something must cause these volume spikes. If we have seen the bottom then these patterns confirm thier usefulness in marking turning points. Also, OPECs made a deal. Lets see if my RDSA can move up another few hundred points? Friday: 03 April 2020: "Ignore the market noise" Up down, up down, up down. Being invested in the markets at the moment is like being in a rubber dingy in a force 10 gale. The noise is so loud I can barely hear myself think! Market noise is always there whatever your investing time frame. It's usually best ignored. Of course, at the moment the noise is horrific and I wish I could turn it down. Some of my holdings are up 20% one day and down 20% the next, utter bonkers. So much is up in the air at the moment in terms of when the virus will peak, will there be a second wave, will business get the support it has been promised, when can we all get back to work??? I wonder how much of this the banks are going to have to take on the chin? Trades: This week I addedd to, RMG, HSBA and PMI. They are all sitting at monthly stochastic lows, ticked my fundamental boxes and shorter term technicals looked good for entry. I've scaled back to half my normal position sizing as at the moment the world looks like its about to fall apart. No sells or divis this week. March 2020 Blogs:Friday: 27 March 2020: Down the rabbit holeI wanted to call this one 'light at the end of the tunnel' but I think we're still well and truly in the depths of the tunnel. Charles has got it, and now Boris and Matt Hancock!!! I kind of imagined they'd have some sort of special immunity? The markets deffinately found some support around 4800/5000 and have had a pretty decent bounce back up to 5700. I actually have some positions in profit!! The question is.... actually there's lots of questions..... Will the government come good on its promises? Will we get the business grants, wage protection, tax deferments etc etc Lets hope so. Small print is starting to appear and as usual conditions are attached. I finally lowered my position size which as I said last time I feel I should have done a while ago. I bought 1 share this week: LLOY 3066 x 32.66p. A relatively small position but I'm still looking for the 'Bottom'. Maybe it's in already as LLOY is back up to 36/37. I also sold some funds which aren't on the website. This was just to protect some longer term profits and free up some cash. If we've seen the bottom then I have added to several positions at good prices over the last few weeks. If not I've still got some cash ready. Friday: 20 March 2020: Hope is my new strategy!! Not a good few weeks for the portfolio! I'm now looking at 25-30% down overall. Crap! Why didn't I stick with trend following?? I've put some more money where my mouth is this week albeit with smaller position sizes. With hindsight I should have cut my position sizing down sooner. Buys in AV DLG RDSA PSON CCL RR TUI adding to existing positions Friday: 13 March 2020: Superstitious much? I'm writing this on Thursday watching the markets collapse. Half in panic and half in anticipation. Overall, I'm a good 15-20% down on what I have invested in the market, probably much like everyone else. I know it's crazy but I have been buying this week. I am a 'Bottom Fisher' after all! I've added to HSBA, LLOY, RDSA, AV, CCL, TUI, SGC, RR, CNA!, MNDI and VOD. New positions in SYNT, PRU. I very nearly bought BHP and JMAT but something held me back. Probably common sense!!! Too many to detail here but I'll update them all on the trading log below I can't say I was expecting such sharp falls. The market must have been waiting for an excuse? When will it bottom out? Will it bottom out? Eventually, for sure. If I'm too early (which I usually am!) I'm prepared to wait. My strategy is a longer term one. Most major corrections I've seen before seem to last a few months to a few years, so lets see. The most recent top, chart-wise, looks to be about early January but market highs were last May so we're at least a couple months in. Surely the virus panic will subside over the next few months or so.... I hope your portfolios aren't hurting too much. Good luck and try to pick the Bottom if you can. Friday: 06 March 2020: Still, Keep calm and carry on??? So, the market sell off continues into the coronavirus panic. Is there's too much panic, too little panic or just about the right amount of panic. who knows....... I feel pretty sure that by this time next year, or hopefully before, the world and the markets will have returned to normal. Look out for the 'flu slash covid' vaccine next year. No sells in the portfolio last week but I did buy into the fall on Friday and early this week: CCL 106 x 2343.79 SNR 859 x 139.62 INVP 629 x 397.10 AV. 710 x 351.98 LLOY 5097 x 49.04 RDSA 148 x 1679.96 K3C 566 x 212 Probably crazy, maybe the FTSE is heading for 6000, or 5000, or 3000?? I picked up a couple of small dividends from PMI, K3C and SGC which came to £ 221. One bit of news did catch my eye today which was OPECs planned cut in oil production. I've always found their announcements worth listening to. That could mean some support for oil and related stocks. I might look for an opportunity to add to my RDSA. I've been looking at BP also but not sure abouts it's debt. I like RDSA better. February 2020 Blogs:Friday: 28 February 2020: Keep calm and carry on!Well, the markets are certainly reacting to the coronavirus outbreak and my portfolio has taken a hit this week. Glad I sold EasyJet and British Airways last month. Not so glad I still have a mountain of TUI shares! To be honest though, I feel like I've been here several times before over the last 20 years. Markets advance and markets decline and then they advance again etc etc. Any excuse! One thing I've worked out is that knee jerk reactions from me are usually unhelpful. I've 'panic sold' shares before only to watch them recover way past what I'd originally paid. If the original argument for buying is still the same then I'm gonna hold or even add to positions. If it's the end of the world then we're all knackered. If not it'll all come out in the wash. My strategy is to buy what I think are good companies at longer term lows so I've actually added to a couple of positions this week. LLOY 5196 x 51.95p (div 6.6%) CCL 102 x 2637.55p (div 6.3%) One new purchase which I've been watching for a while: HSBC 489 x 551.80p (div 7.4%) I love to get 4 or 5 positions in HSBC over 6 months and then sell if it gets back up to £ 7 or 8. In the meantime I get nearly 2% divi a quarter. I'm planning to add to anything else already in the portfolio if the price drops to attractive levels and open new positions in anything that presents an opportunity. 6% dividends and above are hard to resist. Dividends received this week come to £ 705 (TUI - £ 647 and VCT - £ 58). Friday: 21 February 2020: Only one buy and one sell this week. I bought some more Senior (SNR) on Tuesday at 160p. It's not particularly cheap and has some debt but it does pay a pretty good 4.7% divi. Senior is an engineering company making components for the aviation and defnese industries amongst others. I like the defense sector generally even though it seems to have been out of favour over the last year or two. I think it's a fact of life. My plan is the same as usual, which is to build several positions around a multi-year stochastic low, and sell when it reaches a high. Collecting the divis along the way, of course! I sold Direct Line (DLG) at 347p for a profit of £ 663. I didn't really want to as it still looks cheap to me, has a load of cash and pays a great dividend. I'm trying to stick to a reproducable plan though, which is to sell once the monthly stochastic becomes overbought, so it had to go. No dividends banked this week. Friday: 14 February 2020:"Happy Valentines" I added some more PMI (Premier Miton Investments) on Tuesday; 823 @ 156.50p. There are several smaller investment / assest management compaines that I'm watching at the moment and have held in the past (IPX, JIM, LION, RIV). Actually I currently have some RIV and have made a bit on IPX and JIM in the past, maybe should have held on or bought back in.... patience required. They seem to be doing well as an industry and generally come with little or no debt. I'm greedily eyeing BP and RDSA at the moment. I'd love to pay 400p and 1700/1800p for these, or less. There's new management at BP who plans to push ahead with "renewables" and "sustainables", go carbon neutral etc. I'm hoping the share price slumps while he finds his feet ;-) Dissapointing fall in CNA on Thursday reporting a loss. I did manage to sell half at around 90p a few weeks ago, taking a bit of a hit on what I originally paid, but getting out at what I considered a medium term high. It was a mistake to buy this back in 2018 and I've just sat on them since then. If its results hadn't been so bad I would have maybe considered buying some more now, as it is I'm not so sure. Gas seems to be going out of favour, a fact which CNA is well aware and is dumping this part of its business. I might just stare at this one a bit longer. Rabbit in the headlights style! On the bright side my VOD shares paid out a nice dividend this week. £ 358 banked there. I do think dividends are nice and worth looking for; I'm sure they more than pay for dealing costs and spread etc. I think this financial year (since last Apr) I've banked nearly 5.5k in divis. Friday: 07 February 2020:"Squashed tomatos" My 'squashed tomato award' this week goes to Royal Mail which fell 10% or so on a poor update and broker downgrade. I nearly bought more and may still. Watching and waiting for now. I bought further holdings in BT (160p), SGC (137p) and LLOY (57p) on Thursday. Buying in on daily stochastic lows to build my positions in these. They all look cheap and pay good dividends, my only reservation is with BT's debt which is quite high. Rolls Royce has rebounded nicely to over 700p since my last purchase. Did I pick the bottom at 622p or is this just another minor rally before it continues lower? Who knows. What else has done well? K3C is toying with 300p as I write so this has doubled on my first buy at 144p and nicely up on the second buy. I just have to get out somewhere near the right time..... 300-350p would be nice! January 2020 Blogs:31 Jan 2020:"So far so good?"Well, that's the first month over and I've quite enjoyed posting my trades and blogs. Brexit looms, but I think we'll stay 'calm and carry on!' People will still wake up, go to work, go to school, walk their dogs etc etc. Sure, there's bound to be some challenges ahead and I for one would have rather remianed but it'll all come out in the wash. Wont it?? Not sure where this Coronovirus is taking us, lets hope it doesn't turn into anything too nasty. I know someone who works in Public Health and apparently they're flat out planning and advising the hospitals, doctors and public. As I write it seems to have gone quite, probably because its not hit the western world yet. Time will tell here also I guess. As the markets dropped on Monday I bought a second position in Rolls Royce at 622p doubling my holding. I've read three different articles on RR recently; 1 - saying that its car sales are motoring on up, 2 - on its plans to develop mini nuclear reactor power plants in the uk and 3 - plans to develop lighter, quiter, more efficient engines for aviation. All good and no bad! When I bought the first lot I had 600p in mind as a potential low point based on the longer term lower trend-line. 'What an idiot (you say), why didn't you just wait till now to buy?' I don't know when the exact bottom or top is and I certainly can't pick it. I do think it's possible to spot longer term lows though; sometimes a share touches briefly and sometimes the low forms over a year. For all I know 699 could have been a brief touch and had I not bought in then I would have missed the opportunity. As it happens the share price has continued lower and I'm happy to build a larger position around what will hopefully be a longer term low. Could it go lower still? Sure..... Overall January has been a good month banking over 5k in trading profits and £ 363 in dividends. 24 Jan 2020:"Every little helps" I thought this week was going to be a quite one but I did top up a couple of holdings and buy one new share. If fact the two shares I topped up are on my 'Sell list' this month but they never reached a point where I was happy to sell. Too greedy?? The first top-up is TUI whose recent rally up towards the 1100p mark has reversed sending it back into 'good value' teritory so I bought some more at 843p. I suspect people bought in at around the 1100 level back in December 2018 creating some support/resistance before it broke down towards it's 700 mid year lows. They were probably keen to offload some recently at break-even. This is one of my bigger holdings now but it looks cheap, there's no debt and I just can't see people not going on holiday any time soon. It's also due to go x-dividend on the 12th of February making a single, annual payment at the end of the month. Some of my purchases were made when it was yielding over 7% so I'm quite looking forward to that! The second one is K3C which has made some pretty big gains after my original buy at 144p last October. I very nearly sold it for a quick profit when it hit 260p. It has since wobbled a bit and corrected this month but I'm hoping it's just catching its breath before moving up to 300p or more. I added more at 244p. My new purchase is in asset management company PMI (Premier miton investment group). I was watching both Premier asset management and Miton group before their recent merger but held off buying either at the time. The numbers of the new company look ok and my valuation has it on about fair value. However, that is on last years figures and I would like to think the two companies will be stronger together. There's no debt (it actually has positive cash) and a 6.4% dividend which it intends to pay in quarterly installments. I'd quite happily build up a larger position in this even if if fell back a bit. I also picked up a couple of dividends this week which are always nice. I see dividends as a bit of a safety net or 'compensation' for holding onto a company whilst riding I'm out the general chop. RMG and HFD paid £ 314 and £ 49 respectively. Every little helps!! 17 Jan 2020: "Sell high" When do you take profits? I'd be interested to know if there's any magic formulas out there. I've been using long term, monthly, stochastics to try and spot entry and exit 'windows'. The plan is to build several positions around a longer term low and sell at a longer term high. Simples! Obviously, I'm trying to pick the exact low/high point so I can brag about it later. Unfortunately, there are two problems....Sometimes the stochastic stays 'embedded' at overbought highs which means that I sell out at what looks like the top only for the share to continue upwards further than expected and me losing out on extra profits. Sometimes the stochastic briefly touches overbought teritory only to reverse back down all but wiping out profits. At the moment I've decided to try and sell early and take profits once the exit window is open. Is that Fear or Greed?? I'm not sure. I sold EZJ this week at 1488p for a gain of £ 5256 which was a huge success. I'm sure it will keep going up now I've sold but I have no way of knowing so happy to bank some profits. I added some more HFD at 145p on Monday. I know retail is not popular at the moment but I guess that's partly why I'm buying it. I've got it on about 7 times pre-tax profit with manageable debt and a nice dividend. Also I got some more PSON, the UK based educational resource and publishing company. I bought in at 617p missing the lows under 550p by a country mile. It put out a trading statement this week update saying profits are going to be a the lower end of forcasts around 590 mil. I think this still makes it look good value plus debt and the dividend look ok. Surely education is the way forward? 10 Jan 2020: "Size matters" When it comes to trading I see Risk simply as 'the chance of losing money' and I think damage control is a basic requirement. I tend to win some and lose some, however my portfolio normally grows year on year otherwise what's the point? A bad trade is then just a small 'educational cost' that doesn't dent the bottom line. I have a pretty simple formula to determine my 'normal position size' (NPS), which is 1% of total funds available. Therefore as total funds increase the position size increases proportionally. I use this size for FTSE 350 trades. If the share is a small cap or the fundamentals aren't perfect then I tend to use half NPS for extra protection. I got my fingers burnt a little bit by last weeks buy, CARD. It put out a rather disappointing trading statement on Thursday and promptly tanked almost 30%, Ouch. I told you I buy losers!!! It said sales had fallen and it had a poor Christmas period. I guess people aren't buying as many cards any more? On the plus side it re-iterated its commitment to the dividend, the CEO bought 10,000 shares and it confirmed a partnership to sell its products in ALDI stores across the UK. I can't decide whether cards are going out of fashion or not? Both my purchases were half my normal position size so my exposure is relatively small. My plan is to let the dust settle before deciding whether to buy more or gradually unwind. I added some BBY this week at 259p x 540 shares. My initial purchase was back in Sept 2019 at 222p. Fundamentally looks fair value now on around 14 times pre-tax profit but has no debt and I think the monthly stochastic is still rotating up. I entered on the daily stochastic low and have a target of 300/320p in mind. If it gets up there and the monthly stochastic is at the top I'll take profits. Current holdings EZJ up today on a broker upgrade, K3C seems to have resumed its upwards move and I'd be looking for 300p next (should have bought some more!). RIV also up well today and I really like the look of the longer term chart here; looking for somewhere around 300p. Also, I am planning to add a monthly 'Watchlist' to the site of possible buys and maybe possible sells. Updates every Friday. 04 Jan 2020: "The Boris Effect" Happy New Year! I'm not quite sure whether we had a Santa rally this year or if the 'Boris Effect' was more in play over December. I'm hoping that the UK will enter into a longer term rally now that we have a more stable political environment. I could like Boris, I think he's the man for the job. I took a look at some longer term, 20 year, charts this week showing the FTSE100 and compared them to the US SP500 over the same period. Its striking how far the US markets have risen over the last 5years compared to the UK. I wonder if we have some catching up to do?? I bought CARD this week which is my second purchase following an initial buy in Novemeber. Fundamentally, looks good with market cap around 7 times pre tax profit, debt just over 2 times pre tax profit, a 6.4% dividend and expansion plans. The monthly stochastic is still oversold and in my 'Buy Window'. The entry was timed on the daily stochastic low and further weakness in the share price. Position is half normal position size as CARD is a smaller cap stock.
Email: mike@bottomfishing.co.uk
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